Let’s be honest: Following the 2017 Cincinnati Reds has been an emotional roller coaster that’s felt pretty wonderful at times and amazingly horrible at others.
But if we’re being honest, let’s also be real: This is a team coming off 68-win season that was preceded by a 64-win season. And in the first 81 games of the season, the Reds have thrown 13 different pitchers out as starters. That’s like a new pitcher every 6th game.
The only real surprise about the Reds 35-46 record for the first 81 games is that it’s actually not worse. Also, it’s a surprise that the Reds actually do have a chance (a very, very slim one) to make a second half run for the division.
Okay, I just finished watching Jaws (a 4th of July tradition), and I can hear everyone saying, “A what?” Watch this 8-second YouTube clip if you’ve never seen Jaws (and shame on you).
But yes, the Reds are in position for an improbable 2nd half run at the division!
And here’s why it could happen:
- Reds are only 7.5 games back. Yes, they’re last in the division, but 7.5 games is not an impossible lake to cross. I mean, the Rockies only have a 6.5-game lead on the Cubs, and I can guarantee you they’re not taking a playoff spot for granted. Essentially, the Reds just have to make up 2.5 games per month. That’s totally doable, though easier said than done.
- Reds are a juggernaut with competent pitching. What’s competent pitching mean? For me, it’s slightly less than a quality start. Instead of a 6/3 standard of the QS, I’m thinking a 5/3 standard–or pitching at least 5 innings and giving up 3 or fewer runs. When the Reds do that, they’ve got an incredible 26-14 record (or .650 winning percentage). That’s because the…
- Reds are already elite in 3 phases of the game. Those phases are offense, defense, and relief pitching. The one drag has been starting pitching, but IF (and yes, it is a big if) the Reds can get more competent starts in the second half, then a division title is possible.
When the Reds (have competent pitching), they’ve got an incredible 26-14 record.
So here’s how it could happen:
The Brewers lead the division currently with a .524 winning percentage. If they (or another team) finish the season atop the division with that same winning percentage, it means they’ll have an 85-77 record for the season. So that’s the benchmark for the Reds, right?
We know it’s not likely, but if the Reds were to hit that 5/3 standard in every one of their remaining 81 games with the same results as they’ve recorded to this date (or in other words, they still win those games at a .650 clip), they’d finish the season with an 88-74 record and win the theoretical division title. Hooray! Yay! And woo!
Back to Life; Back to Reality
I admit I’m an optimist, but that doesn’t mean I have no connection to reality. The more probable outcome for the second half, of course, is that the Reds finish the season with a Top 10 draft pick in the 2018 MLB draft (they’re currently sitting in 4th position).
Here’s why the Reds can expect more of the same:
- Reds starting pitching is still a mess. In the past 15 games alone, the Reds have trotted out 9 different starters. And they’ve lasted an average of 4.1 IPs per game. That’s insane!
- Reds will start unloading pieces. Zack Cozart is likely to be traded. Drew Storen too. The ironic twist of Scott Feldman pitching good recently is that it increases the chances he gets swapped for a prospect or two. And don’t be surprised if Cingrani, Mesoraco, and one or more of the outfielders are available. If the Reds get prospect happy, it could effectively kill this season and compromise 2018 as well.
- Reds relief pitchers wear down. When your starting rotation is historically bad and lasting fewer than 5 IPs per start this deep into the season, then it’s going to impact the bullpen. It’s just common sense.
- Reds offense falls back to earth. I do believe the Reds’ elite defense is real, and I also predicted the Reds would have a great offense this year. But they could still be solid and regress in the second half. Votto, Duvall, and Schebler have a realistic shot of combining for 120+ HRs this season, but maybe they all end up just south of 40. Suarez has already been regressing, and if some of those trades mentioned above happen, the offense will probably regress as a whole.
The good news is that for every reason to throw in the towel there’s a corresponding reason to have optimism. And maybe that’s why the Reds have been so fun AND frustrating to watch this season. The potential is evident, but so is the consistent inconsistency.
With 81 games to play, make sure you’re strapped in: This roller coaster season is only half way to finished.
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