I know, I know. This sounds like a post that can only make Reds’ fans feel lousy and Cubs’ fans beat their chests, and yeah, I’m comparing the second worst team from 2016 against the best team from that same year–and we’re only a few months removed those results, but…
Let’s really look at how different these teams are. And maybe–just maybe–we’ll find a little hope for the 2017 Reds by stacking their roster against the Cubbies.
Reds Vs. Cubs at the Plate
We’ll begin where there’s the most room for optimism. I mean, the Cubs have some big names on offense: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, and Wilson Contreras. And they backed it up with production: Their 808 runs scored was 2nd in the NL only to the perpetually high scoring Colorado Rockies.
That said, I think the 2017 Reds line up compares favorably to the Cubs and really to any batting order in the National League. First, there’s the speed. Hamilton and Peraza may combine to steal 100+ bases this season.
Behind them is Mister .400 OBP Joey Votto. Pitchers are free to walk the guy, because he’s followed up by Adam Duvall, who I predict will lead the NL in RBIs in 2017. And after him will be some combination of Schebler, Cozart, Suarez, and whichever hot hitting catcher is up that night.
The Reds are returning 7 batters with a .700+ OPS, the same as the Cubs. They’re returning 5 batters with a .750+ OPS, the same as the Cubs. And none of them hit less than .240, while the Cubs bring back two such bats.
I don’t think it’s blind optimism to predict the Reds could outscore the Cubs in 2017.
Reds Vs. Cubs in Rotation
However, the rotation is another matter entirely. The Cubs had a great pitching rotation in 2016, while the Reds broke the kind of records teams don’t like to break (especially in the bullpen). And it starts with the starters.
Here’s the thing: The Cubs are bringing back superior starting pitching with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey. Brett Anderson, not so much. But the big four all had ERAs south of 3.36 and WHIPs less than 1.09. That’s poison.
Meanwhile, the Reds are rolling out two rookie pitchers–one of them actually named Rookie–two cast off veterans, and a young guy in Brandon Finnegan who has shown the ability to dominate and the ability to be dominated. Personally, I like where the starting rotation is headed, but this is still a work-in-progress.
The Reds best case scenario is that Scott Feldman and Bronson Arroyo start off hot and can maintain until Homer Bailey and–hopefully–Anthony DeSclafani can return to action. And maybe Amir Garrett and Rookie Davis will hit the ground running as rookie hurlers. Finnegan should be good to go, but maybe that’s reason to be skeptical.
So yeah, I think it’s blind optimism to say the Reds starters will out pitch the Cubs starters in 2017. But maybe they can keep things interesting.
Reds Vs. Cubs in the Bullpen
Speaking of interesting, the now famous (or infamous) talk of the 2017 Reds is Bryan Price’s insistence on experimenting with the bullpen to have longer relief roles for multiple relievers. Baseball people are notoriously conservative and close-minded when it comes to trying new things, so I love this idea!
Especially with the pitchers who will be tasked with rolling out this new strategy: Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Cody Reed, Tony Cingrani, Robert Stephenson, and Drew Storen. If these guys can actually pull off regular 2-inning relief appearances, it could help take the pressure off the starters and relievers both.
And honestly, the best Reds teams have had dominant closers. This could be the next generation of Nasty Boys.
Of course, I’m getting ahead of myself, because the Cubs have an incredible group of relievers in Wade Davis, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Koji Uehara, Mike Montgomery, and Carl Edwards.
While I have high hopes for the Reds’ bullpen this year, recent history is definitely on the Cubbies side.
Reds Vs. Cubs Overall
It’s no surprise that based off recent history, any rational person would pick the Cubs to finish above the Reds this year. In fact, many rational people are picking the Cubs to repeat as World Champions, even though it is super ultra rare in the National League. Further, there are many rational people picking the Reds to be a bottom 5 team again in 2017.
And I understand how folks can take a quick look and come to this conclusion, but I don’t see a bottom 5 team when I see the Reds. For one, they finished the second half of the season with a 36-37 record (essentially a .500 team).
For another, injuries to the pitching staff were largely to blame for the weak first half of 2017. And those injuries affected the starters AND relievers–leading the Reds to have a -154 run differential in the first half of 2016. But once the pitching stabilized, the Reds posted a +16 run differential in the second half of 2016.
Every team in the National League with a positive run differential for the 2016 season finished with at least 86 wins, and that’s where I see this 2017 Reds team shooting as a base level. And I think they can grow into an even better team that can challenge for 90 wins…this year!
Does that mean they’ll overtake the Cubs? Not likely, but the Cubs had a +252 run differential in 2016; so that’s not a realistic goal.
But then again, that’s why they play the game, right?
Think I’m crazy? Maybe I am, but maybe that’s what they say about all fans who believe in their teams before anyone else does. All I know is that I’m ready for the season to start!
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