We’re through the All-Star game. Congrats to Zack Cozart getting a hit for the National League and to Joey Votto for drawing a walk. Good times!
Still, we’re now into that territory where the Cincinnati Reds play the annual rebuild game. With players like Cozart, Drew Storen, Scott Feldman, and others (but please, not Raisel Iglesias!) on the trade block for the 2017 edition, let’s grade the Reds previous rebuild trades.
For the purposes of these grades and this rebuild, I’m starting at the tail end of 2014.
Jonathan Broxton for Kevin Shackelford and Barrett Astin on 8/31/2014
Broxton was cut earlier this year by St. Louis. So the Reds could scoop him up if they felt like it, but seriously, no. Since leaving the Reds, Broxton has been serviceable at best and bad at worst, which is why he was cut. Meanwhile, Astin is currently ranked #30 in the Reds farm system by MLB, which I think is a little high, but he’s at least got potential, right? Shackelford is interesting, because he fell on his face in his one MLB appearance recently. However, he’s carrying a 1.85 era and 1.13 whip in Louisville after posting a 2.03/1.20 line for the Bats and Pensacola last year. He’s not as big of a prospect, but he could still come in handy for the Reds bullpen this year and next.
Bottom line: Broxton was dropped at the right time, but neither prospect is a show stopper.
Grade: C+.
Chris Heisey for Matt Magill on 12/3/2014
Heisey was a prototypical fan favorite who flashed average skills in the beginning that apparently were his ceiling. He was traded for pitcher Matt Magill, who is now pitching in the San Diego farm system. Magill did make 5 appearances for the Reds last year, hurling 4.1 IPs in which he gave up 5 hits, 5 walks, and 3 earned runs.
Bottom line: Heisey would not have helped Reds, and there’s no chance Magill will.
Grade: C.
Alfredo Simon for Eugenio Suarez and Jonathon Crawford on 12/11/2014
Alfredo Simon was a solid pitcher for the Reds from 2012 to 2014, spending the first two as a pretty good reliever and the third year as a starter (in fact, an All-Star). The Reds jumped ship on him at the right time though, because he posted a 5.05 era with Detroit in 2015 and 9.36 when he popped back onto the Reds roster in 2016. In return for the failing (and flailing) pitcher, the Reds received Eugenio Suarez, who has turned a corner with his fielding and is on pace to post his second consecutive 20+ HR season. While Crawford is a former 1st round pick, he hasn’t shown anything yet to indicate he’ll make it to prime time.
Bottom line: Reds score a steal in getting Suarez for Simon.
Grade: B+.
Mat Latos for Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Wallach on 12/11/2014
On the same day the Reds traded Simon, they also dealt Latos. Like Simon, Latos is also currently out of baseball and has accomplished nothing since leaving the Queen City. DeSclafani has flashed, including a 3.28 era and 9-5 record in 20 starts for the Reds in 2016. Unfortunately, he’s also dealt with a series of injuries. Wallach’s biggest claim to fame is being the son of former Montreal Expo Tim Wallach. He’s played his way up to Louisville, but it’s doubtful he’ll have much of an impact at the next level.
Bottom line: This is currently a good deal with the potential to become a great deal IF DeSclafani can get and stay healthy.
Grade: B.
Johnny Cueto for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed on 7/26/2015
Confession: Cueto was my favorite pitcher of the Reds 2014 rotation of Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Simon, and Latos. So I wasn’t thrilled about Bailey getting the long-term deal or Cueto being dealt. Cueto won a World Series in 2015 and had an All-Star campaign in 2016, but his numbers are down this year. So who knows? Maybe he’s about to follow the path of Simon and Latos; time will tell, I guess. So far, time has not told too much about the package that the Reds received in return. Brandon Finnegan has pitched fairly well when healthy, but–like DeSclafani–he’s spent a lot of time on the DL. John Lamb is with the Angels farm system. That leaves Cody Reed, who shows the potential to be something great, even as he deals with control issues. So there are a lot of unanswered questions still.
Bottom line: Reds had to get something for Cueto; the question is, what did they get?
Grade: C+ (with potential to be much more).
Mike Leake for Keury Mella and Adam Duvall on 7/30/2015
A week after the Reds traded Cueto, they got a deal down for Leake. The rumor mill surrounding Leake hinted that the Reds wouldn’t be able to resign him no matter what they offered; so the Reds were just trying to get anything in return. While Mella is still a work-in-progress, Duvall has blossomed as a hitter. He made the All-Star team last season and was in the conversation again this year. In fact, he’s currently on pace to beat his numbers from 2016.
Bottom line: Reds received great value for a guy who wasn’t coming back.
Grade: A.
Marlon Byrd for Stephen Johnson on 8/20/2015
Speaking of rentals, the Reds tried to get something for Byrd, who is currently out of baseball. Too bad it was for Johnson, who is now back in the Giants farm system.
Bottom line: Nothing to see here.
Grade: D.
Todd Frazier for Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, and Brandon Dixon on 12/16/2015
As a two-time All-Star, Reds fans were upset by the Frazier deal. Not only was he a fan favorite, but many thought the return wasn’t so great. While Frazier has hit 56 HRs in 858 ABs for the White Sox, he’s sporting a .221 batting average and sub-.800 ops. For comparison, Schebler has swatted 31 HRs in 552 ABs (only slightly off Frazier’s pace) with a .259 average and some pretty great defense. Then, you have a potential SS or 2B of the future in Peraza, who needs to learn how to walk, yes, but he just turned 23 has a .280 average in 586 MLB ABs with 39 SBs. He’s still got a lot of room to grow. Finally, the Reds received Dixon, who is a solid presence in Louisville–even if his prospects for the big leagues aren’t that great with all the talent in the system.
Bottom line: Frazier has underwhelmed outside of Cincy while Schebler and Peraza look like the future.
Grade: A+.
Aroldis Chapman for Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham, Tony Renda, and Eric Jagielo on 12/28/2015
A couple weeks after dealing Frazier, the Reds panicked and unloaded Chapman to the Yankees. There were off-the-field reasons for dealing the super reliever, and the Reds must’ve thought it was a good strategy to try and get quantity, since they couldn’t get quality, prospects. Cotham is out of baseball; Renda was recently traded for a player-to-be-named-later or cash. Davis epitomized the Reds shaky starting pitching at the beginning of the season. Finally, Jagielo has had a sub-.700 ops since joining the system.
Bottom line: When the Yankees flipped Chapman for Gleyber Torres, the failure of this trade became complete.
Grade: F-.
Jay Bruce for Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell on 8/1/2016
Bruuuucccee was a three-time All-Star for the Reds, and the kind of guy who could win games when he was on and lead to spectacular frustration when he wasn’t. He’s nearly duplicating his quick start of 2016 right now, but once he landed on the Mets in 2016, he could only muster a .219/.294/.391 slash line (and many Mets fans wanted the team to not pick up his 2017 option). Herrera may pan out at 2B or as a utility IF. Wotell hasn’t shown much yet, though he is still pretty young. But the big thing about trading Bruce is that it opened up space in the OF for Reds prospect Jesse Winker; surprisingly though, Scott Schebler slid in and is not letting go.
Bottom line: Bruce was not part of the rebuild; time will tell whether Herrera or Wotell can be.
Grade: C.
Dan Straily for Luis Castillo, Austin Brice, and Isaiah White on 1/19/2017
The first trade of 2017 was also completely unexpected. Miami made an offer the Reds couldn’t refuse to get Dan Straily, who was a free agent surprise for 2016. To be honest, Straily has continued his success with Miami by hurling a 3.31 era and 1.05 whip through 18 starts this season. But the Reds received Luis Castillo, who lit up AA Pensacola earlier this season and is now sporting a 3.13 era and 30 K’s in 4 starts and 23 IPs for the Reds. There’s big time potential there. Plus, the Reds were able to get an effective Straily replacement when they signed Scott Feldman, who has been just a slight downgrade. Brice has been more effective in the minors than the majors, but he could still fill a role in the back of the bullpen. White is a project.
Bottom line: Straily appears to be a legit starter, but Castillo could be a great starter.
Grade: B+ (with potential to go A+).
Brandon Phillips for Andrew McKirahan and Carlos Portuondo on 2/12/2017
Everyone knew the Reds were desperate to get a Phillips trade done to make room for Peraza; everyone knew that Phillips was knocking down potential trades. When the trade finally happened, the expectation was that the Reds would receive nothing in return. For instance, Portuondo is already out of baseball. And McKirahan was recovering from Tommy John surgery after serving an 80-game PED suspension. But I can’t help but think the Reds might’ve found another diamond in the rough with McKirahan. First, he’s a lefty reliever, which is valuable if he can pitch. And in 96 minor league games, McKirahan sported a 2.20 era and 1.11 whip with 136 Ks in 127 IPs. He recently started pitching for Billings and has 7 Ks in 4 IPs with a 0.00 era. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being a late bloomer. Also, remember this: If the Reds had not traded Phillips, it’s doubtful they’d have taken a flier on Scooter Gennett.
Bottom line: Reds had to add through subtraction.
Grade: B- (with potential to improve if McKirahan pans out).
Now the big question is who will be dealt next?
*****
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