One of my biggest questions for 2017 was a simple one: Who is Scott Schebler?
Is he the guy that started off 2016 with a .217 obp/.344 slg/.561 ops with 1 HR in 64 ABs? Or is he the guy that replaced Jay Bruce with a .338/.461/.799 with 8 HRs in 193 ABs?
Even now, it’s a bit of a mystery. He’s currently sitting on a .280/.527/.808 with 7 HRs in 74 ABs. But even just a few days ago, it didn’t look so good. So?
The First 59 ABs
In his first 57 ABs, Schebler was back to his 2016 ways with a familiar looking .231/.339/.570. Almost identical to those first 64 ABs from 2016, right?
Believe me, I was ready for the Winker era to begin just a few days ago, but then something happened…
The Next 15 ABs
A light switched on for Schebler this week. In his most recent 15 ABs, he’s hit a ridiculous .438/1.267/1.705 with 4 HRs and 8 RBIs.
There’s no way that pace is sustainable, but it’s fair to take a look at Schebler’s 2016 and wonder if Schebler is just a slow starter who needs so many ABs to get into a rhythm.
Or phrased another way: Is Scott Schebler Just Getting Started on 2017?
Let’s take a look at what Schebler did after he was demoted to Louisville last year.
After the 2016 Demotion
As a young under-performing prospect, Schebler earned his demotion with the numbers referenced above, but then something started happening in Louisville: He started going off.
In 289 ABs at Louisville, Schebler slashed .370/.564/.934 with 13 HRs. As a point of comparison, top prospect Jesse Winker went .402/.402/.804 with 5 HRs in 463 ABs.
So Schebler earned the call up when Jay Bruce was traded for Dilson Herrera, and he performed in the final two months of the season as shown above. His MLB numbers dipped a little compared to his AAA performance, but you expect that.
So What Can We Expect From Schebler Now?
That’s still the big question, isn’t it? But I think Schebler has done enough in April 2017 to earn a chance to stay on the roster in May 2017…for a couple reasons:
- If Schebler’s a slow starter, it looks like he’s hitting his rhythm now.
- Even if he’s not, he’s currently on pace for 50+ HRs and 110 RBIs. At least wait until he’s not projecting those kind of numbers.
Listen: If this previous week is a blip on the radar and Schebler goes back to doing absolutely nothing, then no problem: Send him down or to the bench. Simple.
But unlike some other potential demotions the Reds could (and probably should) be handing out today, I think Schebler’s done enough to give him a little more time to prove which Schebler from 2016 he really is: April/May Schebler or August/September Schebler?
All Reds fans should be hoping it’s the latter!
Go Reds!
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